Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 23.463671 24.846453 26.307731 27.973822 29.829342 31.842374 34.205132
2026-01-18 21.483512 23.358816 25.435249 27.927909 30.870748 34.276299 38.579572
2026-01-25 20.125653 22.227312 24.620616 27.587267 31.224189 35.620084 41.472897
2026-02-01 18.977615 21.213411 23.815742 27.124987 31.308961 36.555243 43.868166
2026-02-08 17.947547 20.246583 22.967762 26.497882 31.072252 36.983039 45.548135
2026-02-15 17.334606 19.733026 22.619653 26.440805 31.519539 38.293669 48.533633
2026-02-22 16.991376 19.519535 22.614327 26.797268 32.507234 40.388519 52.877565
2026-03-01 16.370939 18.924243 22.086431 26.422941 32.455575 40.991353 55.003192
2026-03-08 15.561170 18.054657 21.164238 25.465925 31.519256 40.216310 54.813765
2026-03-15 15.106922 17.618704 20.781872 25.212247 31.550447 40.862023 57.016498
2026-03-22 14.976979 17.590418 20.925779 25.677882 32.635341 43.187403 62.408142
2026-03-29 14.773439 17.455280 20.917132 25.922907 33.402159 45.074910 67.323719
2026-04-05 14.588393 17.356592 20.977767 26.306268 34.464593 47.653795 74.295480
2026-04-12 14.293969 17.101832 20.814798 26.357489 35.018875 49.450404 80.151156
2026-04-19 13.892733 16.686498 20.408738 26.021747 34.921594 50.079059 83.603227
2026-04-26 13.492606 16.259171 19.968754 25.611152 34.670510 50.398381 86.422463
2026-05-03 13.064553 15.780745 19.439664 25.040121 34.115411 50.097357 87.691162
2026-05-10 12.826450 15.554844 19.258863 24.988992 34.421647 51.448362 93.442720
2026-05-17 12.717835 15.502591 19.321456 25.312211 35.382178 54.178917 103.754077
2026-05-24 12.416351 15.172999 18.971993 24.972634 35.164769 54.515848 107.388558
2026-05-31 11.971172 14.632673 18.302365 24.102802 33.965317 52.723192 104.163477
2026-06-07 11.732606 14.376821 18.040655 23.871882 33.891789 53.284581 108.490068
2026-06-14 11.693778 14.399846 18.186090 24.295634 35.019638 56.534855 122.905553